- Central AC: $5,300–$18,000 installed — a typical 3-ton, mid-tier system runs $7,300–$11,100.
- Heat pump: $7,200–$22,500 — about 25% above a comparable AC, but it heats and cools and draws the biggest rebates.
- Gas furnace: $5,000–$12,300 — a typical 80k BTU/h 96% AFUE unit runs $6,600–$10,200.
- Sticker price isn’t the decision — net cost after rebates vs. what it saves is. The calculators do that math for your ZIP.
Central AC replacement cost by size and tier
Two things set the base price: capacity (tons — roughly one ton per 500–600 sq ft in most climates) and efficiency tier (SEER2 — the cooling equivalent of MPG). Turnkey installed ranges:
| Size | Standard (14.3 SEER2) | Mid (16 SEER2) | Premium (19+ SEER2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 tons · to ~1,200 sq ft | $5,300–$8,000 | $5,800–$8,700 | $6,700–$10,100 |
| 3 tons · ~1,500–1,800 sq ft | $6,700–$10,100 | $7,300–$11,100 | $8,400–$12,700 |
| 4 tons · ~2,100–2,400 sq ft | $8,100–$12,200 | $8,800–$13,400 | $10,200–$15,400 |
| 5 tons · ~2,700–3,000 sq ft | $9,500–$14,300 | $10,400–$15,700 | $11,900–$18,000 |
Reading it: the jump from standard to premium tier on a 3-ton system is roughly $1,700–$2,600. Whether that premium pays back is a function of your cooling hours and electricity rate — exactly what the AC replacement savings calculator computes from your ZIP, including the old-vs-new energy cost.
Heat pump replacement cost
A heat pump is an AC that also runs in reverse to heat, so it prices like an AC plus about 25% — reversing valve, heating controls, backup-heat integration, and often electrical work:
| Size | Mid tier (16 SEER2-class) | Premium (19+ / cold-climate) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 tons | $7,200–$10,900 | $8,300–$12,600 |
| 3 tons | $9,100–$13,800 | $10,500–$15,900 |
| 4 tons | $11,000–$16,700 | $12,700–$19,200 |
| 5 tons | $12,900–$19,600 | $14,900–$22,500 |
Two offsets make the sticker gap smaller than it looks: a heat pump replaces two machines with one (retiring both an aging AC and a furnace), and it draws the deepest incentives — income-qualified HEAR rebates run to $8,000 in many states (see the 2026 rebates guide). Whether it beats gas on operating cost is your local $/therm vs. ¢/kWh — the heat pump vs. furnace guide walks that break-even.
Gas furnace replacement cost
Furnaces price by input capacity (the BTU/h on the nameplate) and AFUE tier (the share of gas that becomes heat in the home):
| Size | Standard (80% AFUE) | Condensing (96% AFUE) |
|---|---|---|
| 60k BTU/h · 1,000–1,600 sq ft | $5,000–$7,700 | $6,000–$9,200 |
| 80k BTU/h · 1,600–2,400 sq ft | $5,600–$8,600 | $6,600–$10,200 |
| 100k BTU/h · 2,400–3,200 sq ft | $6,100–$9,400 | $7,300–$11,200 |
| 120k BTU/h · large homes | $6,700–$10,300 | $8,000–$12,300 |
The 96% condensing premium over 80% is roughly $1,000–$1,900; it buys back one therm in five that an 80% unit sends up the flue. Payback depends on your therms and gas price — the furnace replacement savings calculator runs it, and also prices the heat-pump alternative side by side.
What moves a real quote off these ranges
The ranges above are turnkey national figures for a straightforward swap. Real quotes move for reasons worth knowing before you compare bids: ductwork (repairs, resizing, or sealing can add $1,000–$5,000 — and skipping needed duct work quietly erases the new unit’s efficiency); electrical (heat pumps and larger systems may need a panel upgrade, $1,500–$4,000); line sets and code items (refrigerant line replacement, permits, disposal); market (the same system can quote 20–30% apart between metros, and peak-season emergency replacements price worst); and brand tier, which matters less than the installer — a mid-brand unit installed well outperforms a premium unit installed badly. Get two or three quotes, itemized.
From price to decision: cost is half the math
A $9,000 system that saves $900 a year and avoids $400 in annual repairs is a different purchase than the same system saving $250 — and you can’t tell which you’re buying from the sticker. That’s the half this site exists for: the cooling and heating calculators pre-fill a typical installed price for your exact size and tier (the same cost model as the tables above), pull your utility’s real rates by ZIP, and return annual savings, payback, and 15-year ROI — with a repair-adjusted break-even that credits the old unit’s repair bills a new system avoids. Two minutes, no email necessary, and every number stays editable when your real quotes arrive. If you’re still deciding whether to replace at all, start with the repair-or-replace guide.
Frequently asked questions
How much does it cost to replace an HVAC system in 2026?
Central AC: $5,300–$18,000 installed by size and tier (typical 3-ton mid-tier: $7,300–$11,100). Heat pump: $7,200–$22,500. Gas furnace: $5,000–$12,300 (typical 80k/96%: $6,600–$10,200). Replacing both halves at once lands in the combined range, usually with some shared-labor savings.
Is a higher-efficiency tier worth the extra cost?
It’s a payback question, not a price question. The premium-tier upcharge (~$1,700–$2,600 on a 3-ton AC) pays back quickly in long, hot cooling seasons at high electricity rates and slowly in mild ones. The calculator answers it with your ZIP’s climate hours and utility rate rather than a national average.
Why do heat pumps cost more to install than air conditioners?
More machine and more integration: a reversing valve, heating controls, usually backup-heat coordination, and often electrical-panel work — roughly +25% over a comparable AC. In exchange it replaces both your AC and your heater, and qualifies for the largest rebates currently offered.
Should I repair instead of replace?
Compare this year’s repair bill plus the old unit’s energy penalty against a new system’s net cost after rebates. The $5,000 rule is the quick screen; the break-even math in the calculators is the real answer.